Chemicals lead commodity futures

The domestic commodity futures rose mostly on February 10, but the performance of the varieties changed. The trend of non-ferrous metals such as Shanghai Copper was weaker, and chemical products rose sharply. White sugar hit a record high. Market participants pointed out that maintaining overall price stability is the focus of regulation and control. Commodity gains are under pressure.
White sugar hit another record high. From the analysis of domestic sugar supply and demand situation, as of the end of January this year, the country’s total sugar output was only 5.65 million tons, a decrease of nearly 500,000 tons compared with the same period of 2010. According to past laws, from December to March next year, it is the domestic sugar production peak season. During this period, the output accounts for about 80% of the total crop output during the crop season. In December and January, the output generally exceeds the total output of 40. %. Therefore, according to the current production progress, it is quite difficult to achieve the 12 million tons target expected by the Guilin Sugar Club in November 2010.
From the current inventory analysis, as of the end of January, the industrial inventory was 2.93 million tons, which was the same level as the previous year's average, while the sales rate was at a historically low level. This indicates that the country has thrown storage and high sugar prices for consumption. The inhibitory effect partly offsets the low output of sugar.
Chemicals continue to rise, from the plastic point of view, overcapacity is the main problem facing plastics in 2010, production companies generally only 70% -80% operating rate. However, this situation may improve in 2011. Due to the strong cyclical nature of capacity expansion in the petrochemical industry, after two consecutive years of capacity expansion, the new plastic production capacity in 2011 will be less. No PE equipment was put into operation, and the production capacity of PE on the international market was very limited in 2011. This means that plastic will enter the capacity to digest the year.
The good performance of PTA comes from the Khmer price. As a direct substitute for cotton, polyester products are directly driven by the cotton price, especially polyester staples blended with cotton. At present, cotton is back above 33,000. If the normal price of 2-2.5 is calculated, the current PTA price should be between 1,300-16,000.
The weakness of the spot market and China’s interest rate hike have led to increased selling of basic metals. However, after the short-term reaction, the market will shift its focus to the upcoming China CPI data. If the data continues to rise, China may need to push bolder austerity measures in the next few weeks or months. This expectation limits the rise of metals. expected.
China entered a rate hike cycle in 2011. On February 8, the central bank once again raised the one-year deposit and loan benchmark interest rate of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points. Although boots fall is generally considered to be bearish, it is expected that the country’s macroeconomic control policy will not To this end, systemic risks will continue to overshadow the commodity market, and the macroeconomic background of the rising commodity market is changing.