Chemicals oscillate strongly

As the international oil price bottomed out, the downstream chemical sector also took a dazzling rebound. According to statistics from the China Securities Journal, since mid-January, the Wenhua Chemical Index has gained nearly 23%.

Analysts interviewed by reporters from the China Securities Journal believe that in addition to the bottoming out of the international oil price and the cost side advantage, the rebound of chemicals has a lot to do with its fundamental situation. The overhaul of supply devices and domestic liquidity are more abundant. This is an important factor in the rise of chemicals this year.

Strong chemical performance

On Monday, the chemical sector continued its strong pattern. In addition to the high adjustment of PTA, the relevant varieties have received a full line of revenue. Among them, rubber 1509 soared 3.22% to close at 14,280 yuan/ton, hitting 14,580 yuan/ton in the session, the highest since July last year.

Retrospective of the market during the year, the strong chemical industry began on January 15th. As of April 28, the cumulative increase in cultural and chemical index was close to 23%, of which the methanol quintile was the strongest, and the cumulative increase range was close to 32%; Plastic, PP, PTA ** The cumulative increase in the interval was about 27%, 25% and 20%, respectively. PVC and rubber** performed relatively poorly, but the cumulative increase was also around 15%.

“Because chemical products** are basically crude oil in the upper reaches, so rising oil prices will inevitably lead to a rise in the prices of chemical products.” Researcher Liu Jiali of Xingxing Research Institute told reporters, from the recent trend of LLDPE, PP and PTA** varieties. It can be seen that both are in a pattern of turbulent rises, closely following the pace of crude oil.

Niu Hui, a senior analyst at Anxin Energy and Chemicals, pointed out that although the chemical sector has rebounded overall, the rebound rate is different and the causes are also different. First of all, crude oil is located at the top of the chemical industry chain. The rebound of crude oil has played a major role in raising the cost center of gravity for the chemical sector as a whole and has formed the main reason for the cost-driven rebound. Secondly, the oversold of the previous period led to excessive distortion of the basis, which led to the need to repair the basis of difference, and also contributed to the rebound of the chemical sector.

“From a single species, plastic rebound has better continuity and higher rebound height, which is mainly due to the rising demand for raw materials due to the spring season of agricultural film consumption. PTA is due to the impact of recent explosions in PX installations, driving prices. Change the trend and get out of a wave of rapid rally." Niu Hui said.

Market outlook shocks upward

Analysts believe that in the medium to long term, if the price of oil can continue to maintain a turbulent pattern of rising prices, the price of chemicals will continue to strengthen. In the short term, due to concerns over the oversupply of crude oil, the international crude oil will fluctuate at high levels, and the chemical sector may oscillate stronger.

In terms of sub-categories, CITIC ** pointed out that LLDPE, L1509 continue to increase warehouse, showing increased market disagreements. In April-June, overhaul/return production still led to a tight balance between linearity. Upstream companies did not have much pressure, there was room to raise prices, the middle part consumed some inventory in the price shock, the downstream inventory was not high, and the price was able to conduct downwards to a certain degree. The strong performance of crude oil also provides support. High positions may increase the price volatility, discount long-term or make the bulls dominant, the market still has room to rise.

On the PTA side, the recent escalation of the Dacheng Chemical Plant and the Ningbo Unitization Plant will either ease the tight supply pattern. At present, the PX terminal will be the key and pay close attention to the results of the ACP negotiations. PTA device restart and ACP negotiations will be a game, it is expected that PTA or stalemate.

In respect of methanol and PVC, yesterday's methanol price spread remained stable, and the short-term or due-to-price performance was strong. The spread would maintain the spot premium structure and the discount rate would be broadened. Yesterday, the PVC price rose sharply, and the spot price was basically maintained due to downstream constraints. As a result, the current price spread was changed to a premium pattern, and it is expected that the short-term premium will be maintained.

PP, PP capacity surplus is still higher than PE, the price to promote demand is an unavoidable problem in the future, the focus of its price will be long-term passive changes with LLDPE. Taking into account the three quarters of demand, installation and put into operation and the main delivery point of difference, 1000 yuan / ton or a balance between the spread of the two, it is recommended to wait for the spread to further expand to buy PP throw L hedge.